Moscow: Russia’s formal recognition of the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan has ignited a wave of diplomatic recalibrations worldwide.
According to Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, the Kremlin’s decision, while primarily symbolic, is poised to deliver strategic advantages for Moscow by positioning it as a bold challenger of Western norms in the global arena. This move could potentially pave the way for other countries, particularly in Central Asia, to reassess their stance and consider normalizing relations with the Taliban.
Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are reportedly showing signs of warming relations with Afghanistan, potentially influenced by Russia’s lead to foster collective counterterrorism efforts. In a broader context, Russian-aligned states such as Belarus may join the recognition bandwagon. Meanwhile, China has expressed approval of Russia’s decision and emphasized its intent to maintain a friendly policy towards Afghanistan, though it stops short of formal recognition.
In contrast, neighboring Iran remains cautious, with public wariness toward the Taliban still prevalent. Although Tehran continues economic and diplomatic engagements, including hosting Taliban officials, it has not shown intent to follow Russia’s example. The geopolitical pragmatism incited by Russia’s recognition could bring China and Iran closer to Afghanistan over time, especially if stability aligns with their strategic interests.
The response from Arab states in the Persian Gulf is marked by caution. The United Arab Emirates manages Afghan airports and accepts Taliban diplomats but remains hesitant to recognize the group formally due to its Western alliances. Saudi Arabia focuses on domestic reforms over risky diplomatic endorsements, while Qatar and Oman engage pragmatically but avoid full recognition to evade U.S. scrutiny.
Russia’s primary aim in recognizing the Taliban appears to be fortifying collaboration against security threats, particularly the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP), an active militant group. Aleksei Sakharov from the Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation suggests that Russia’s objective is to enhance counterterrorism efforts, especially following a high-profile ISKP attack in Moscow in March 2024.
For the Taliban, Russia’s endorsement marks a significant step toward international legitimacy, potentially breaking its diplomatic isolation and opening avenues for economic engagement. The recognition from a UN Security Council permanent member like Russia could elevate the Taliban’s negotiating position in international forums, allowing for dealings without immediate demands for social reforms.
Former Afghan legislator Shukria Barakzai, who fled Afghanistan after the Taliban’s return to power, expressed concerns over Russia’s move. She warned that Russia might prioritize the Taliban’s interests over broader Afghan rights, potentially influencing positions at the UN Security Council. Barakzai also cautioned against assuming that Russia’s recognition would bring economic benefits to Afghanistan, underscoring the complexity of the situation.